By AAPI Data
In April 2024, we produced a battleground race analysis for the presidential, Senate, and House races, discussing the places where AANHPI voters are poised to play a meaningful role, and where we can expect parties and campaigns to expend high levels of outreach effort.
Since then, the presidential race has been upended by the departure of President Joe Biden and the announced candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris. The Harris candidacy has energized a new wave of grassroots mobilization efforts, starting with Black women for Harris and soon expanding to many other groups including South Asian women for Harris, AANHPI women for Harris, and South Asian men for Harris. VP Harris’s entry has also restored the battleground map to where it was earlier this year, with states like Georgia and North Carolina back in play, and with states like Virginia increasingly out of reach for the Trump campaign.
Given this context, we are updating our analysis of the AANHPI electorate with a deeper dive into the ethnic composition of Asian American and NHPI eligible voters. This analysis is especially timely and important, with Harris now as the first Black woman, and as the first person of Indian American, South Asian, or Asian American origin to be nominated for president from either major political party.
Eligible AANHPI Voters by Detailed Origin
National data show that Chinese Americans are the largest group of eligible Asian American voters, followed by Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese Americans. Among NHPIs, Native Hawaiians are the largest group of eligible voters, followed by Samoans, Chamorros, Tongans, and Fijians.
Table 1. Eligible Voters by Detailed Origin for Asian Americans and NHPIs
Looking at the same data as proportion of totals and by major U.S. region, we see that Filipinos are the largest group of eligible Asian American voters in the West, followed by Chinese Americans and Vietnamese Americans. In the South, Indian Americans are the largest group, followed by Vietnamese Americans and Chinese Americans. In the Midwest, Indian Americans are the largest eligible voter group, followed by Chinese Americans and Filipino Americans. And in the Northeast, Chinese Americans are the largest group, followed by Filipino Americans and Indian Americans.
Table 2. Eligible Voters by Detailed Origin for Asian Americans and NHPIs, Share of Total Within Each Geography
Eligible AANHPI Voters in Presidential Swing States
Data on eligible voters in swing states reveals a different set of groups that are the largest within each state, and across states. First, Indian Americans emerge as the largest detailed Asian group in swing states. Unlike other Asian American groups, who tend to be highly concentrated in one state like California (Filipino, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Japanese Americans) or in New York (Bangladeshi Americans), Indian Americans are more likely to be spread across their country, specializing in industries such as health care, information technology, academia, and hospitality.
Table 3. Eligible Voters by Detailed Origin for Asian Americans and NHPIs
At the same time, there are other groups that are more highly concentrated in particular swing states, including Filipinos in Nevada and Hmong in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Table 4. Eligible Voters by Detailed Origin for Asian Americans and NHPIs, Share of Total Within Each Geography
Methodology
Our analysis is based on examination of the latest available data from the American Community Survey. We use the 1-Year American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) to produce estimates for national and regional data (Table 1 and Table 2). We use the 5-Year ACS PUMS to produce state-level estimates in order to get sufficiently large sample size for detailed origin groups in particular battleground states (Table 3 and Table 4).