One in Five: Can AAPIs Swing the California Governor Race?

COMMENTARY

One in Five: Can AAPIs Swing the California Governor Race?

By Karthick Ramakrishnan and Sara Sadhwani
April 23, 2026

Key takeaways: AAPIs are one of 5 eligible voters in California; Steyer is breaking through among Democrats, most are undecided; outreach can still make a difference for up to a 9 percent gain in total vote share

California’s gubernatorial hopefuls are widely missing the mark when it comes to securing the support of Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. That is the unmistakable conclusion we can draw from AAPI Data’s latest survey of AAPI eligible voters in California.

In a survey conducted in late March 2026, we asked “If the California Governor race were held today and you were eligible to vote, for whom would you be most likely to vote?” The biggest winner was “Don’t Know,” with 47 percent of AAPIs undecided among the top Republican and Democratic candidates in the race.

This is a remarkable finding for a population that accounts for nearly one out of every five eligible voters in California (19%). The AAPI share of voters in California is similarly large: In the 2024 presidential election, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders accounted for about one of six voters (17%), according to our analysis of the 2024 Current Population Survey. Combining these figures (share of electorate multiplied by percent undecided), California’s gubernatorial candidates could gain as much as nine percentage points by aggressively courting AAPI voters in the state.

Why are AAPI voters so persuadable? Past research in political science suggest several factors that are likely at play:

1. Parties and campaigns tend to underinvest in outreach to AAPI voters.  Past surveys such as the National Asian American Survey and the Asian American Voter Survey series from APIA Vote and AAPI Data indicate that Asian Americans are less likely than other groups to have been contacted by parties and campaigns. There have been some areas of progress, such as in competitive Congressional races in Orange County since 2018, but the statewide and national picture on AAPI voter outreach remains very limited.
2. Related, many campaigns operate under a mistaken belief that AAPI outreach is too expensive. Ethnic media outlets are far less expensive than mainstream media outlets, language translation is much cheaper and easier than before, and digital advertising via YouTube and Instagram enable campaigns to micro-target based on media consumption very efficiently.
3. Ethnic media outlets have limited resources to cover state politics. Past research indicates that those who predominantly consume ethnic media are less likely to encounter political news and have lower levels of political knowledge (Ramakrishnan and Haynes 2016). This means that paid advertising is more likely to make a difference in ethnic media outlets than strategies to get “earned” media coverage through political news stories.
4. Asian American party identification tends to be weaker than the national average. Since most Asian American voters are naturalized citizens, their party identification tends to be weaker because they did not grow up in a Republican or Democratic household. On the one hand, weaker party identification also means lower levels of political news consumption. At the same time, campaigns can bridge this information gap through advertising and community engagement. Those seeking to gain a competitive edge would do well to make early, sizable, and symbolically meaningful investments in AAPI outreach, .

Tom Steyer’s campaign seems to be doing many of these things, as part of a larger spending spree in California. He has tapped Kevin Liao as his campaign spokesperson and has invested heavily in field outreach, television and digital advertising in AAPI communities. Perhaps not surprisingly, he is breaking through among the Democratic candidates, securing 14% of the vote. 

This survey was conducted prior to the departure of Swalwell and Yee from the race, making the support for Steyer particularly notable. Even with the Democrat frontrunner Swalwell and a broadly known Asian American candidate like Yee, Steyer captured the support of a significant proportion of AAPI (likely) voters. The departure of these candidates from the race presents an opening for Steyer to capitalize and consolidate more AAPI voters.

After Steyer, the next set of candidates are Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco in a statistical dead heat. Other candidates with stronger statewide profiles like Katie Porter, the former candidate for U.S. Senate, or Xavier Becerra, former Attorney General of California, do not fare better than any of the Republican candidates. Importantly, Betty Yee did not fare well either, despite being Asian American and winning prior statewide elections for State Controller. Perhaps not surprisingly, Yee dropped out of the race on April 21 soon after an AAPI Gubernatorial Forum in Southern California and endorsed Tom Steyer.  

Deeper Dives by Gender, Age, and Partisanship

Digging deeper into the results, we see that the female candidates do not enjoy any particular advantage among female AAPI Californians. Steyer still outperforms Porter among AAPI women, and gender differences in support for each candidate are negligible. Finally, Republican candidate Steve Hilton, who received President Donald Trump’s endorsement, fares better among AAPI men than among AAPI women.

Other interesting patterns emerge by age. Steyer enjoys higher levels of support among those ages 18 to 34 and among those ages 65 and over, while Steve Hilton fares better among older AAPI voters than among younger voters. Betty Yee has her best performance among AAPI independents, which points to the potential for co-ethnic voting playing a significant role among those with weaker party identification. Finally, and perhaps not surprisingly, Hilton and Bianco fare better among AAPIs who identify as Republican, and the proportion of “don’t know” is lower among AAPI Republicans than among AAPI independents or Democrats. 

With Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race in mid April, with Xavier Becerra gaining union endorsements, and with Betty Yee dropping out of the race and endorsing Steyer, the California gubernatorial race remains very fluid. 

What’s Next

Ballots are poised to be mailed out in early May, which also happens to be the start of AANHPI Heritage Month. The remaining gubernatorial candidates would be wise to aggressively court AAPI voters, as they most certainly will account for the margin of victory in California.

Some recommendations as candidates sprint to the finish:

1. Get educated about the community’s needs and priorities. Better late than never! Resources like the MOSAIC California policy platform, which combines the expertise of many community organizations and coalitions across the state, is a good place to start. So, too, are AAPI Data’s resources guides on public opinion and key policy issues.
2. Reach out to trusted community partners. The April 19 gubernatorial forum organized by CAUSE and 40 partner organizations in Southern California presented the first major opportunity. But it should not be the last. With millions of AAPI voters in the Bay Area, Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego, campaigns should do more to connect with community organizations that are producing voter guides and organizing election forums.
3. Spend smartly and efficiently on digital ads and ethnic media. It bears repeating: Ethnic media outlets are far less expensive than mainstream media outlets, and digital advertising via YouTube and Instagram enable campaigns to micro-target based on media consumption very efficiently. Relying on consultants and staff who understand Asian American and Pacific Islander audiences can strengthen the value of these investments.

About the survey
This survey was conducted by Community R&D, AAPI Data and the National Council of Asian Pacific Americans. Data were collected using the Amplify AAPI Monthly survey drawing from NORC’s Amplify AAPI® Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AANHPI) household population. Interviews for this survey were conducted between March 23-30, 2026 with Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders 18 years of age or older representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In addition to English, the survey was offered in the Chinese dialects of Mandarin and Cantonese, Vietnamese, and Korean, depending on respondent preference. The survey results are weighted by age, gender, census region, race/ethnicity, education, U.S. born, Asian origin, and California residence. The results here are derived from a sample of 488 adult citizens in California. The full questionnaire and survey results will be released by AAPI Data and NCAPA on April 29, 2026.

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Karthick Ramakrishnan is the founder and executive director of AAPI Data at UC Berkeley. Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College and a senior researcher at AAPI Data.

Photo credit: Jason Henry/Pool Photo via AP