BY KARTHICK RAMAKRISHNAN AND JANELLE WONG

 

Early polling with Asian American registered voters shows that registered Asian Americans lean heavily towards supporting Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020, although about 1 in 6 are still persuadable.  Among all those polled from July 4 to August 16th, about half (54 percent) say they are supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden, about 29 percent say they will vote for President Trump, 1% say they will vote for a third-party candidate, and the remaining are undecided (16%).  Restricting the analysis to those who have decided on a candidate to support in the upcoming Presidential race, 65% support Biden, 34% support Trump, and 1% support another candidate. These results are consistent with past trends.  A majority of Asian Americans have supported the Democrat candidate in Presidential elections since 2000.

Self-reported party identification remains in line with past surveys.  Almost half of all those polled identify as “Democrat” (47 percent), one-fifth identify as “Republican,” and almost one-third (32 percent) say that they are Independent, don’t know, or do not identify with political parties. Among those who identify as Independent/other, about one-third lean Democrat (32 percent), one-fifth lean Republican (22 percent), and the remaining lean toward neither of the two major parties (46 percent).

As noted in a previous AAPI Data blog post, AAPI voters are poised to have an impact in several battleground states such as Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Texas, where they are considered a potential swing vote. However, their role in these states and across the country depends on turnout and mobilization.  Results from our early polling suggest that the vast majority of Asian Americans have not yet been contacted by either of the two major parties.  About 56% of registered Asian American voters say that they have not gotten contacted at all by the Democratic Party, and the proportion is similar for lack of contact by the Republican Party (59%).

These results are based on 1,026 registered voters who identify with one of the six largest Asian American eligible voter population groups: Chinese, Filipino, Asian Indian, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese. The number of respondents by detailed origin include 217 Asian Indian, 234 Chinese, 145 Filipino, 126 Japanese, 118 Korean, and 186 Vietnamese. Of the total, 499 took the interviews online in English, and 527 responded to the survey via telephone in English and one of three Asian languages (Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese).

Survey data are weighted based on state population, Asian national origin, age, gender, nativity, and education. These are preliminary results from the 2020 Asian American Voter Survey and include 150 Indian, 226 Chinese, 106 Filipino, 114 Japanese, 91 Korean, and 164 Vietnamese registered voters.

 

APIAVote, AAPIData, Asian Americans Advancing Justice | AAJC are partnering on a larger survey from which these data are drawn. The full results from the 2020 Asian American Voter Survey will be released in September.


Question wording for the data presented in this post are as follows:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a {READ CATEGORIES}, an independent, or in terms of some other party? [ROTATE 1 AND 2]

Democrat (1)

Republican (2)

Independent (3)

Other party (please specify) (4) ____________________

Do not think in terms of political parties (5) (VOL; DO NOT READ)

DON’T KNOW(88)

Refused (99)

 

PARTY LEAN [SPLIT SAMPLE]

Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? OR

Based on where the two parties stand on the issues, do you think your views are closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Closer to the Republican Party (1)

Closer to the Democratic party (2)

Closer to neither party (3)

Don’t Know (88)

Refused (99)

 

VOTE CHOICE

Thinking about the upcoming November election for President… If the election were being held today would you be inclined to vote for [ROTATE ORDER Joe Biden,  Donald Trump] or some other candidate?

Biden (1)

Trump(2)

Someone else _________ (3)

Don’t know (88)

Refused (99)

VOTER CONTACT

Thinking about the 2020 elections, have you been contacted by any of the following groups in the past year: a great deal, some, a little, or not at all? [ROTATE A AND B]

 A great deal (1)   Some (2)  A little (3)  Not at all (4)  Don’t know (88)  Refused (99)

 

  1. The Democratic Party
  2. The Republican Party
  3. By community organizations